Climate change could shrink grazing lands by 2100

Across much of the globe, livestock farming relies on climates that remain within a limited comfort range.

A new worldwide study indicates that, by the end of the century, climate change may force 36 to 50 percent of today’s grazing lands beyond that viable range.

Such a change could disrupt one of the world’s biggest food systems, affecting more than 100 million pastoralists and as many as 1.6 billion animals.

The results underline how heavily the future of grazing depends on climate choices taken today.

Grazing depends on climate

In rangelands that currently support cattle, sheep, and goats, dependable grazing requires a narrow combination of temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind conditions.

By charting these climatic boundaries around the world, Chaohui Li of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research showed how rapidly rising temperatures can drive many areas beyond the conditions that have historically supported herding.

In many tropical regions, current temperatures are already close to the upper end of this viable range, leaving minimal room as warming speeds up. When that threshold is exceeded, grazing systems become unreliable on a large scale.

These climatic constraints affect both pasture and livestock, as each relies on water availability and air movement. High temperatures and humidity may cause heat stress, preventing animals from cooling themselves efficiently and raising their body temperature.

When heat-stressed, cattle pant and sweat more heavily, resulting in lower feed consumption and reduced fertility. Reduced rainfall and stronger winds also desiccate forage, meaning less green growth is available when herds need it most.

Grazing zones shift unevenly

As temperatures rise, suitable pasture is expected to shift towards cooler latitudes and higher altitudes in many parts of the world. Warming first reduces safe climatic space in certain tropical areas, whereas parts of northern Asia could become more suitable.

Additional rainfall may benefit some locations, yet warmer air frequently draws water from plants through more rapid evaporation. This makes planning more difficult, as some ranchers will encounter climatic limits without an obvious suitable alternative nearby.

Africa is already close to the upper temperature threshold for grazing, meaning that even limited warming could upset local conditions.

In a low-emissions future, projections indicate around 16 percent less land with climates appropriate for grazing.

Along a fossil-fuelled pathway, losses could rise to approximately 65 percent as hot conditions expand across major pastoral regions.

As the continent reaches the Southern Ocean, the cooler climate band can move offshore rather than creating fresh grazing land.

Grazing shortages create tension

More than 100 million pastoralists – people who herd animals for income – could lose grazing land by 2100 across rangelands that cover one-third of Earth’s land surface.

Since many herders depend on common land and seasonal movement, contracting pasture can put pressure on local arrangements and relationships.

Meanwhile, up to 1.6 billion grazing animals could be concentrated in the areas that remain, increasing the likelihood of overgrazing.

Nations already dealing with hunger, inequality, and weak governance could face further instability when pastureland fails.

Unreliable grazing may force more animals onto the same land, particularly around roads and towns. Higher stocking densities strip vegetation to the soil, after which exposed ground loses moisture more quickly in heat and wind.

Bare areas are more susceptible to erosion, enabling nutrients to be washed away and delaying grass recovery even after favourable rainfall.

Some herders may react by purchasing feed or drilling wells, although these actions can increase costs and generate fresh tensions.

Adaptation helps, but limits remain

Seasonal migration and mixed herds have traditionally enabled many communities to cope with drought years, because different animals can feed on different plants.

Yet model projections indicate that these approaches will fail more frequently when extensive areas become excessively hot or dry simultaneously.

“Climate change will shift and significantly contract these spaces globally, leaving fewer spaces for animals to graze,” said Li.

Planning early can still limit losses, particularly where local leaders coordinate access to water, markets, and veterinary services.

Shade and dependable water points reduce heat load, enabling animals to graze for longer rather than standing inactive and panting.

Improved seasonal forecasts and mobile alerts can direct herd movements, helping animals avoid burnt grass and dry waterholes.

External investment is often vital because many households cannot afford wells or feed reserves when drought and extreme heat occur together.

Climate action can protect pastures

Lower levels of warming retain more areas within safe climatic space, as temperatures and humidity stay nearer to current norms.

Burning coal, oil, and gas releases heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. Cutting these emissions therefore slows the loss of viable pasture and maintains the environmental baseline on which ranching relies.

Policy decisions made today will determine how warm this century becomes – and that temperature path will influence every long-term ranching plan.

“Reducing emissions by rapidly moving away from fossil fuels is the best strategy we have to minimise these potentially existential damages for livestock farming,” said Li

Grazing is intrinsically climate-dependent work: losing the appropriate weather conditions can destabilise land productivity, animal health, and rural incomes.

Governments can provide support by identifying regional risks early and financing practical adaptation measures, but the strongest long-term safeguard for livestock systems will be limiting global warming before 2100.

The study appears in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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