Colombia Cocoa Farming May Shift as Climate Changes

Cocoa cultivation in Colombia may not vanish as the climate changes, but it could shift to different locations. New research indicates that, by 2050, almost 20 percent of land that is currently suitable for cocoa may no longer provide the climate conditions required by the crop, particularly in warmer lowland areas.

Meanwhile, many of the country’s principal cocoa-producing areas on the Andean foothills are likely to remain suitable, while certain higher-altitude locations may become appropriate for cultivation for the first time.

Scientists from the Alliance of Bioversity International – CIAT led the research, combining climate projections with information on existing cocoa farms and wild cocoa relatives to assess how suitable growing conditions may change during the next 25 years.

Colombia’s cocoa risk zones

The modelling identifies Colombia’s northern lowlands as a distinct risk hotspot. The sharpest reductions in suitability are projected for parts of the Caribbean region and the north-east, where higher temperatures alongside increasingly extreme or unreliable rainfall may place crops under greater strain.

The departments considered most at risk are Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre, and Antioquia, as well as north-eastern territories including Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada.

The threat extends beyond reduced harvests. Greater unpredictability creates more uncertainty for farming households, since a crop that is difficult to forecast is also more difficult to invest in.

Recent events demonstrate that both climate change and climate variability are already having tangible effects. One case was a cold wave with global implications that hit northern Colombia, causing serious flooding across lowland parts of the Caribbean region and other Andean areas.

In other words, this is not simply a concern for the distant future. Colombia is already experiencing climatic fluctuations that affect agriculture, and cocoa is likely to encounter these pressures first in particular regions.

Core cocoa regions stay stable

The research does not predict an even decline throughout the country. Instead, it indicates that Colombia’s central cocoa-growing regions should remain in relatively good condition.

Climate conditions are expected to stay favourable in the Andean foothills, where most cocoa is now cultivated. This matters because it suggests that cocoa production will not disappear; rather, it will move.

The researchers also estimate a net increase of around 3% in land suitable for cocoa, mainly at higher elevations. This suggests a gradual uphill movement, with lowland sites becoming less dependable while some cooler areas become more suitable.

“This means that cocoa in Colombia will not disappear, but will likely undergo a gradual process of geographic redistribution,” said Carlos Eduardo González, a researcher at AGROSAVIA and one of the study’s lead authors.

The broader outcome, then, is relocation rather than collapse. Yet relocation presents its own difficulties, including land-use planning, infrastructure, support for farmers, and avoiding deforestation as agriculture moves into new areas.

Wild cocoa’s genetic advantage

One of the study’s most notable findings concerns wild cocoa. The models indicate that wild cocoa populations may spread into new locations as climate conditions evolve. Their greatest importance, however, lies in their genetics.

“Wild cocoa has an advantage that cultivated cocoa does not: it has evolved for thousands of years under extreme climate conditions,” explained Tobias Fremout from the Alliance of Bioversity International – CIAT.

“Populations that currently grow in very hot, very dry, or very wet areas are precisely those of greatest interest to us, because they may contain genes that allow us to develop varieties more resilient to future climate changes.”

This effectively provides climate insurance. Plant breeders commonly turn to wild relatives to identify characteristics such as heat tolerance, drought resistance, and resilience to intense rainfall and disease pressure.

Protecting the forests that support these wild populations would therefore do more than conserve biodiversity in Colombia: it would safeguard options for future cocoa breeding.

For this reason, the study stresses the conservation of native lowland forests, as these places may contain precisely the genetic diversity required to keep cocoa productive as the climate changes.

Agroforestry: A buffer for farms

The researchers identify agroforestry as one of the most practical measures currently available to farmers. Cocoa cultivated beneath shade trees is less vulnerable to temperature extremes.

Shade can lower heat stress, help soils retain moisture, and provide more consistent conditions during dry periods.

In areas likely to experience drought more often, the research suggests that supplementary irrigation could become important for maintaining stable yields.

Production diversification and the adoption of more climate-resilient genetic material can also distribute risk more widely. The approach is not a single solution, but a combination of protections so farms are not reliant on ideal weather.

Preparing cocoa farms for climate change

The study presents its findings as a resource for land-use planning and focused adaptation, rather than as a uniform national policy. Each region will require its own approach according to altitude, changes in rainfall, and exposure to heat.

The researchers further underline the importance of dependable, accessible climate information, allowing farmers and institutions to act sooner rather than responding only once losses have occurred.

The central message is clear: cocoa has a viable future in Colombia. However, that future will rely on advance planning, safeguarding wild genetic resources, and increasing farm resilience in places where the climate is becoming more unpredictable.

The study appeared in the journal Regional Environmental Change.