Pinot Noir Suffers While Chardonnay Is More Drought-Proof, Study Suggests

Climate change puts historic wine regions under pressure

As Western Europe approaches the close of its hottest summer on record, growers in many of the world’s most celebrated wine regions are bringing forward their harvests – assuming their grapes have not already been scorched by fires and drought.

The available evidence indicates that wine regions in Europe and worldwide will continue to face hotter, drier conditions.

A recent investigation by viticulture specialists at institutes in France, Germany and Argentina examined how two of the best-known wine grape cultivars – Pinot noir and Chardonnay – could cope as drought becomes increasingly common with the progress of climate change.

Burned vineyards following a wildfire in Ponteves, southeastern France, in July 2026. (Thibaud Moritz/AFP/Getty Images)

Wine grapes (Vitis vinifera) are generally a crop that tolerates dry conditions well. For red wines, a somewhat drier year can even enhance a vintage – and the price of each bottle – despite lowering yields.

Yet extreme conditions can quickly upset this delicate balance. During droughts, grape vines usually bear far fewer berries, with smaller fruit, and may not ripen correctly at all.

Scientists have proposed artificial selection, or even gene editing, as ways to develop wine varieties more suitable for future climatic conditions. However, growers in traditional regions such as France, Italy and Germany remain devoted to their established vines.

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"While many possibilities have been explored to adapt wine production to climate change, changing cultivars is indeed a risky choice for premium wine regions whose wine characteristics and reputations strongly rely on a single or a few varieties," writes viticulturist Sébastien Nicolas, of Institut Universitaire de la Vigne et du Vin – Jules Guyot, with his colleagues in their recent paper.

"These levers are considered as options of last resort in cool or temperate climate winegrowing regions bound by strict regulations such as the Loire Valley, Bourgogne, or Champagne in France…

"This is because the combination of wine variety and place of origin strongly marks the wine sensory characteristics."

It is therefore important to understand how warming scenarios could affect these heritage vines. Given how hot and dry the European summer has become, such effects could be apparent as early as next year.

Pinot noir and Chardonnay under a warmer climate

To establish precisely how two widely grown wine varieties might perform in a climate 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the team gathered Pinot noir and Chardonnay grape samples from 80 vineyards across 13 wine-producing regions in France, Italy, Germany, Portugal and Argentina. The samples covered three vintages: 2019, 2020 and 2021.

They assessed water availability in the vineyards through carbon isotope analysis of grape juice, an approach shown to be a dependable indicator of vine water status.

"Both varieties appeared to be able to withstand a wide range of water deficits, some of which may be associated with climatic conditions similar to a +2 °C warming scenario in Burgundy," Nicolas and team write.

Across all regions and throughout the three years, Chardonnay vines encountered the broadest range of water deficits.

Notably, vines in the driest regions did not face the most severe water deficits, because those vineyards had adopted irrigation.

Pinot noir vines seem to have a 'tipping point' for taste that's only going to become more frequent as climate change progresses. (Sebastien Bozon/AFP/Getty Images)

Drought affects Pinot noir differently

The researchers identified substantial shifts in the grapes’ metabolic fingerprints according to vineyard water status. These changes influence terroir – the distinctive character a wine gains from its particular growing conditions.

"The 'Chardonnay' cultivar did not seem to reach a tipping point, and the response dynamics of the metabolites was linear, suggesting a potentially higher adaptability of this variety to its changing environment," the authors report.

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The news is less encouraging for red wine drinkers: Pinot noir did seem to have a tipping point. Its metabolites remained stable until the vines underwent severe water-deficit stress; beyond that threshold, the molecules crucial to the wine’s character began to break down.

The findings indicate that high-quality Chardonnays may remain available even as droughts occur more often. The finest Pinot noirs, by contrast, may already belong to the past.

The research appeared in Food Chemistry: X.

This article was fact-checked by Fiona MacDonald and edited by Fiona MacDonald. While we take pride in our process, we are only human. If you spot a mistake, please let us know.