Food Systems Countdown Initiative: World Far Off Track for 2030 Goals

At a local, everyday level, it is easy to lose sight of the precarious condition of the planet. Yet scientific reality checks are becoming both more regular and more alarming.

An international research team working through the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) has now examined humanity’s progress towards internationally agreed food-system objectives for 2030.

The findings are troubling: the world is not on course to meet them. Indeed, it is a long way off course.

In an FSCI report published in Nature Food, researchers examined 44 indicators. Of the 30 that have explicit global targets, just one appears realistically achievable by 2030: mobile phone subscriptions, which serve as a proxy measure for social connectedness and food-system resilience.

The report’s method pairs progress towards goals established by governments and international organisations with comparisons between countries. This is intended to give a more complete view of what can be achieved and what cannot.

"What makes this Countdown paper different is that it doesn't just tell countries whether they're moving in the right direction – it tells them how far they still have to go, and against a benchmark that's actually within reach," says nutrition scientist Bianca Carducci, from the Columbia Climate School in the US.

"That distinction between tracking trends and measuring performance is what turns a monitoring exercise into a tool for accountability."

Food Systems Countdown Initiative indicators and accountability

The indicators assessed by the team span major elements of food systems, from the production and transportation of food to the way it is consumed. A food system’s strength or weakness can be shaped by factors ranging from the depletion of natural resources to eating habits.

Targets and benchmarks matter because, without measures against which progress can be assessed, there is a risk of a harmful absence of accountability and shared momentum.

Governance is one of the indicator themes, and it brings this issue into particular focus.

"Food systems transformation is a shared responsibility," says Lawrence Haddad, Executive Director at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition in Switzerland.

"The governance indicators, including government effectiveness, accountability, and civil society participation, are not just one category among five. They are the enablers. Improving them unlocks progress across the entire system."

For 22 indicators, fewer than one third of the 197 countries covered by the report are expected to achieve the relevant global target or benchmark by 2030.

Among the weakest results is the indicator for ‘greenhouse gas emissions from food systems’, for which the global average sits more than 75 percent from the target.

Several measures are heading in the wrong direction altogether, including civil society participation, government accountability, pesticide use and sales of ultra-processed food.

Global targets, regional benchmarks and progress to 2050

The gaps are typically narrower when regional or income-group benchmarks are used, comparing countries with nations at similar stages of economic development. Nevertheless, large gaps persist across many indicators.

"Bold global targets are vital for inspiring ambition. But they can become a source of inertia if they seem permanently out of reach," says food policy scientist Jessica Fanzo, from Johns Hopkins University.

"Therefore, regional and income-group benchmarks keep progress within sight and help identify the exemplar countries that can show others how it is achievable."

There are also some more encouraging findings in the report. For 7 of 33 indicators with applicable projection data, at least one third of countries are on track for 2030, and half of all indicators are moving in a positive direction.

The outlook "improves considerably" when the assessment period is extended to 2050, though certain targets will still be exceptionally difficult to attain.

Food affordability, food security and resilience

Rapid, substantial changes are required to improve food affordability, food security, resilience and other areas in which countries remain well short of their goals. Environmental and food-system shocks pose especially serious risks to vulnerable populations.

"Accountability for food systems transformation requires accelerated progress - without it, efforts risk becoming performative rather than transformative," says sustainability scientist Mario Herrero, from the Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment.

"We can no longer afford to continue at the present pace."

The research was published in Nature Food.

This article was fact-checked and edited by Rebecca Dyer. Although we take pride in our process, we are only human. If you notice an error, please let us know.